Gasoline Prices, Motorcyle Use and Motorcycle Fatalities

Presenter: Peter Hilsenrath, University of the Pacific

Abstract

Background: Motor vehicle accidents are the leading cause of death among young adults. Although automobile fatalities have declined in recent years, motorcycle fatalities are rapidly increasing. Findings suggest that people are increasingly relying upon motorcycles to lower their fuel costs in response to rising gasoline prices. Motorcycle ownership rates in the United States rose 47 per cent from 1994 to 2006 as motorcycles as a share of registered vehicles increased from 1.9 to 2.8 percent of the total. There is concern that many motorcycle fatalities result from inadequate training on the part of inexperienced riders and they account for a large portion of motorcycle related deaths.

Objective: The purpose of our research is to quantify the relationship between changing fuel prices, motorcycle use and motorcycle fatalities. In addition, we propose measures to improve motorcycle safety.

Methodology: Data from the US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration was used to evaluate motorcycle fatalities. The Fatality Accident Reporting System provided specific data for 1994 – 2006. Fuel prices were obtained from the U.S. Department of Energy’s Motor Gasoline Price Survey. A model was developed using fuel prices as one of several variable that explain changes in motorcycle use. Independent variables included fuel prices, and climatic factors. An ARIMA regression was used to predict fatalities using different price assumptions.

The increase in fuel prices experienced to 2006 was highly correlated with motorcycle fatalities. It was also highly correlated with mean monthly temperature. We estimate that substitution of four wheeled vehicles for motorcycles and scooters resulted in nearly 2,100 additional fatalities for each dollar increase in the real gasoline price.

Conclusions: It is curious that so much public attention has focused on automobile safety with a variety of safety measures over the years but so little with respect to motorcycles. The United States has required seat belts, air bags, car seats for infants and children, and safer materials in the dashboard, windshield and other parts of vehicles. Some states do require helmets but many do not and six states have repealed their helmet requirements since 1997. Motorcycle safety should receive more attention as a leading public health issue, especially when energy prices are high. Various measures should be considered. They include mandatory motorcycle training, tiered licensing systems, and universal helmet laws to slow or reverse trends in motorcycle fatalities.